Weekly Power Brief · No. 6
The fleet already spinning gets a second act
Suppliers and OEMs are pouring effort into turbines that already run, while the load forecasts behind new capacity get a harder look. This week: two Turbine Desk items on Howmet's 45% gas turbine growth and Mitsubishi Power's retrofit of 26-year-old M701F units; three Grid & Markets items on a PJM backstop that could shrink to 630 MW, Exelon's push for a prompt capacity auction, and a revised Senate permitting bill; and one Builders & AI item on an AI-run gas turbine in Korea, each linked to the source.
The thread this week is the fleet that already spins. A blade and vane supplier grew its gas turbine revenue 45% in a year and says customers want even more. An OEM signed up to rebuild the combustion sections on turbines that went into service in 2000, rather than replace them. And in Korea, a utility is letting AI watch a gas turbine while robots walk the plant.
Meanwhile, the forecasts behind new capacity are getting a harder look. PJM's data center backstop could shrink by an order of magnitude after utilities trimmed their large-load numbers, and one of its biggest utilities wants the auction moved to just before delivery so the numbers are fresher. For people building companies in power, grid, generation, construction, and infrastructure — and for the operators and founders using AI inside those businesses — the installed base is where the near-term work is.
Why builders should care
- The parts makers are a leading indicator. Howmet's 45% gas turbine growth and its plan to keep capital spending high past 2027 point to years of demand for the hardware inside turbines.
- Retrofit beats replace when slots run to the 2030s. Saltend's owner chose a combustion upgrade during planned outages over new turbines. Expect more owners to run the same math.
- Upgrades are scheduled years out. The Saltend work is set for 2029 and 2030. Outage plans are becoming long-range capacity plans.
- Load forecasts can move fast. A 6.5 GW cut in near-term large-load forecasts could take PJM's backstop from 6.8 GW to roughly 630 MW. Anyone sizing a project on a forecast should watch the revisions.
- Market design is back on the table. A prompt auction would change how new and existing plants get paid. That changes the case for life extension and new builds alike.
- AI in plants is moving from screens to the floor. Korea Western Power pairs a digital twin with robots that do the walkdowns. The measurable payoff it reports is inspection hours.
What to watch next: The Senate cloture vote on the permitting bill (November 9). EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (November 10). Siemens Energy's full-year results (November 11), with its gas services backlog. PJM's capacity market workshop (November 13). Grid operators' large-load filings at FERC (due November 16). NERC's 2026–2027 Winter Reliability Assessment (November 18).
Every item below links to the public source. Read the original before you bet a schedule on a summary.
Turbine Desk
Howmet's gas turbine revenue jumps 45% as customers ask for more
Howmet Aerospace, which casts blades, vanes, and airfoils, said third-quarter gas turbine revenue rose 45% year over year. Its Engine Products segment grew 33% to $1.45 billion. The CEO said gas turbine customers want volumes beyond earlier expectations, supporting the outlook past 2028, and that capital spending will stay elevated beyond 2027.
Mitsubishi Power will retrofit Saltend's 26-year-old M701F units
Triton Power signed Mitsubishi Power to replace the combustion sections on the M701F units at the 1,200 MW Saltend Power Station in Hull, UK, in service since 2000. The package adds upgraded dry low-NOx combustion, fuel system upgrades, and new controls, a first for the M701F in the 50 Hz market. Work is set for planned outages in 2029 and 2030.
Grid & Markets
PJM's data center backstop could shrink to 630 MW
PJM's revised backstop targets the 6.8 GW shortfall from its 2028/2029 auction and would open March 1. Jefferies analysts said utilities cut near-term large-load forecasts by 6.5 GW, which could shrink the procurement to roughly 630 MW. PJM expects its 2027 load forecast in January. A study for PJM still found a possible 11.5 GW shortfall by 2030.
Exelon asks FERC to move PJM to a prompt capacity auction
Exelon asked FERC to order PJM to hold capacity auctions two months before each delivery year instead of three years ahead, starting with 2030/2031. It argues the market no longer works and that a prompt auction would use better load forecasts and accreditation data. It wants a ruling by January 31. Invenergy separately asked for capacity payments for HVDC lines in MISO.
Utility Dive, on the Exelon and Invenergy complaints at FERC
Senators revise the permitting bill ahead of Monday's vote
Sponsors of S. 5653, the bipartisan bill to shorten project reviews and expand transmission, released a substitute amendment on November 7 ahead of a November 9 procedural vote. It drops a federal takeover of tribal preservation programs and gives tribes more time to object. A sponsor said it still makes data centers cover the grid upgrades they cause. Tribal groups remain opposed.
Builders & AI
Korea Western Power lets AI run a gas turbine and robots inspect it
Korea Western Power won a government AI award for a gas turbine plant where AI flags early equipment trouble in a digital twin and quadruped robots then inspect on site. Built with KEPCO's research institute and Korean startups, it runs on domestic AI chips and a plant-operations language model. The utility expects robots to take 37% of inspection work, saving 7,300 hours a year.
The Asia Business Daily, on Korea Western Power's autonomous gas turbine project
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