Weekly Power Brief · No. 2
The pledge becomes the bill
Who pays for the grid that large loads need, and what does a sold-out turbine market mean for the fleet already running? This week: two Turbine Desk items from GE Vernova and NERC, plus four Grid & Markets items from DOE, the Senate, Duke Energy, and MISO — each linked to the source.
The thread this week is the bill — and the machines that have to keep running while the bill gets written. In the span of a few days, the Department of Energy, a bipartisan group of senators, a major utility and four hyperscalers, and a grid operator each pushed the cost and the obligations of serving data centers further onto the data centers themselves. At the same time, the public record on gas turbines shows why the installed fleet matters now: new equipment is booked years out, and forced outages on combined-cycle units are climbing.
That is not a side show. For people building companies in power, grid, generation, construction, and infrastructure — and for the operators and founders using AI inside those businesses — who pays decides which projects pencil, how much cash moves up front, and how fast work starts. Who keeps the existing turbines available decides whether the load that signed the check has power when it needs it.
Why builders should care
- New frames are a next-decade product. GE Vernova's 116 GW under contract, with a path to at least 125 GW by year-end, means near-term megawatts come from aeros, the fleet already in the ground, or both — and from the service market that keeps that fleet online.
- Fleet reliability is a capacity input. NERC's rise in combined-cycle WEFOR from 4.2% to 5.7% is not a one-storm story. Outage planning, parts lead times, and upgrade scope sit on the critical path for owners and for every large load that depends on them.
- Upfront money is becoming standard. Duke's settlement, MISO's non-refundable deposits, and the Senate bill's financial guarantees all move cash to the front of a large-load project. Plan for it before the service agreement, not after.
- Cost causation is being tracked project by project. DOE wants PJM to know which loads in its forecast are real, delayed, or cancelled, and to bill accordingly. Expect more milestone reporting and data requests.
- Load that brings its own supply gets a faster lane. MISO's 120-day study is built for loads paired with new generation in the same zone. Pairing becomes a schedule advantage, not only a hedge.
- Washington is moving from pledge to statute. The Senate bill would put "data centers pay" into federal law. It still has to clear both chambers, and the details can change.
What to watch next: PJM's special Members Committee meeting (October 22) and its revised backstop filing at FERC (by October 29). The North Carolina Utilities Commission's decision on the Duke settlement (expected by mid-November). Senate floor action on the permitting bill after the midterms. A FERC ruling on MISO's large-load study (requested by December 2). Q3/FY OEM earnings that update gas backlog and slot reservation totals.
Every item below links to the public source. Read the original before you bet a schedule on a summary.
Turbine Desk
GE Vernova's gas book hits 116 GW under contract
GE Vernova ended Q2 2026 with 116 GW of gas equipment under contract — 53 GW firm backlog plus 63 GW of slot reservation agreements — up from 100 GW a quarter earlier. It signed 20 GW of new contracts in the quarter, including 52 heavy-duty and 61 aeroderivative units, and expects at least 125 GW by year-end. Near-term capacity has to come from the fleet already running, from aeros, or from both.
Combined-cycle forced outages climbed as the fleet worked harder
NERC's 2026 State of Reliability finds conventional generation's weighted equivalent forced outage rate rose to 9.2% in 2025, above historical norms of 7–8%. Combined-cycle WEFOR rose from 4.2% to 5.7% year over year, adding about 19.1 TWh of unavailable energy. The rise ran across most months, not a single storm. Fleet reliability is now a capacity question, not only a maintenance one.
Grid & Markets
DOE tells FERC that large loads, not households, should pay for PJM's backstop
In a rare statement of position at FERC, DOE backed the commission's concerns about how PJM's Reliability Backstop Procurement allocates costs. It urged PJM to assign those costs to the large loads that drive them, using updated forecasts and project-level tracking. PJM told Utility Dive it plans to file a revised proposal by October 29, after a special Members Committee meeting on October 22.
Senate permitting deal would write "data centers pay" into federal law
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, introduced September 30, would have data centers pay both their share of the existing transmission system and the added cost they trigger. Other customers could not be charged the added costs of new data centers of 20 MW or more, and financial guarantees would come before utilities build. BPC expects a Senate procedural vote November 9.
Bipartisan Policy Center, explainer on the Senate permitting bill
Duke settles North Carolina large-load terms with the Public Staff and four hyperscalers
Duke's two North Carolina utilities, the Public Staff, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and others agreed that new large loads (50 MW or more at 80% load factor, ESAs signed after June 1, 2026) pay upfront for dedicated facilities, post deposits and security for shared upgrades, and take a High Load Factor rate. A state decision is expected by mid-November.
MISO asks FERC for a 120-day study that pairs large loads with new generation
MISO's proposed Large Load Addition Resource Study would review loads over 200 MW together with new generation in the same local resource zone. Up to 10 applications per study period, three periods a year, with non-refundable deposits and pairs that stay together at least 15 years. MISO asked FERC to rule by December 2.
Reader rating